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Monday, January 26, 2015

Request your ballot now for your vote in the WCD elections

Natalie McClendon reminds us to request your absentee ballot now to vote for Joy Monjure in the upcoming Whatcom Conservation District election!  Please see http://www.whatcomcd.org/board-elections.

Turnout General Elections: 2012 and 2014 GIS representations

Some new electoral GIS skills are demonstrated below. I wanted to plot ballots received marked as "Good" per precinct from the 2012 and 2014 cumulative Matchbacks.   Code is here and here. Click to enlarge graphs.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

January20th news from the WSWS

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: World Socialist Web Site <list@wsws.org>
Date: Mon, Jan 19, 2015 at 9:49 PM
Subject: Today on the WSWS
To: "rferrisx@gmail.com" <rferrisx@gmail.com>

Monday, January 19, 2015

Federal Judge rules against polluting Yakima Dairies...

http://m.seattlepi.com/news/science/article/Federal-judge-rules-against-dairy-in-Yakima-Valley-6017688.php

Sunday, January 18, 2015

The President is asking for your input...

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "The White House" <info@mail.whitehouse.gov>
Date: Jan 17, 2015 3:05 PM
Subject: Your memo:
To: <rferrisx@gmail.com>
Cc:


We asked you what you wanted to see get done in the next two years. This is what you told us.

Thursday, January 15, 2015

French government carries out mass arrests - World Socialist Web Site

French government carries out mass arrests - World Socialist Web Site

Fwd: Year in Review

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: <kshama.sawant@seattle.gov>
Date: Jan 13, 2015 2:13 PM
Subject: Year in Review
To: <rferrisx@gmail.com>
Cc:



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THE YEAR IN REVIEW
My sisters and brothers,
This week marks the passage of one year since the first socialist took office in Seattle in over a century. Our election victory, a collective endeavor by everyone who worked on and supported our bold working-class campaign, came in the context of growing anger against economic inequality and the beginnings of a movement against poverty wages.
Our success reflected the decades of betrayal by corporate politicians and a search for genuine political alternatives. Under the entrenched Democratic Party establishment, Seattle has increasingly become a playground for the wealthy, with working people increasingly priced out of the city.

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

How the Democrats can keep from losing next time: Part II Understanding Voter Updates

This discussion invovlves statistical abstraction at the edge of my capacities for mathematical and inferential logic.  Piece under construction 9:21 AM 1/7/2015. Code to be updated later is here  -RMF
This is part II (part I here) of a discussion of voter updates in the 2014 Whatcom County election. The discussion will conclude with evidence that results from precincts in the 42nd district are correlative to an increase voter update process.  Why this is the case, I do not know. However, the reader should understand that voter updates involve at least two separate organizations:

(1) Your County's election office
(2) A State based effort called 'ERIC'

Here's  a summary of the best information I can gather on how voting lists are scrubbed, moved voters are found, 'undeliverables' removed from active status... (to be continued)

Friday, December 26, 2014

How the Democrats can keep from losing next time: Part I Understanding Voter Updates

Last updates per year for active registrants as of 12/19/2014.
Some of the Age and Precinct charting code updated  12:55 PM 12/29/2014 -RMF
Complete for now. Find Part II here -RMF. R Code for Part I  here. R Code for Part II here.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

"Why the Democrats Lost: Part II" : Analysis of 2012,2013,2014 MatchBacks by Voting Age

The data from this analysis follows from Part I. The 2012 vote for Obama and Cantwell contained a much higher percentage of youth voters than the 2014 vote for the 42nd legislative seats.  Whether these youth votes were suppressed, discouraged, or uninterested in voting for  the Democrat candidates in 2014 is unknown. I will hazard this question:  Satpal Sidhu did the best of the Democrat  legislative candidates. He had the narrowest margin of loss.  Was it because he was perceived as more pro business or more moderate? Or was it because he was a person color who attracted more young Hispanic and Native American votes? Or both?  R Code is here.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

"Why the Democrats Lost: Part I" : Analysis of 2012,2013,2014 MatchBacks by Voting Year

The easiest conclusion is that 2012 Cantwell and Obama voters did not turn out for the Democrats in 2014.  It might be possible to conclude that the Republicans energized their base to vote more for their legislative candidates in 2014 than they did for their county candidates in 2013. Click on the charts below to enlarge. R Code is here.

Friday, December 5, 2014

A Final MatchBack analysis for General Election 2014

16,845 42nd LD Precinct Votes "left on the table" from those precincts with over 300 'not voting'. 32K voters registered in the 42nd LD did not participate.  Click on chart too enlarge.
Statistics below paint a dismal picture of participation in the 2014 General Election. 48,205 registered Whatcom County voters did not participate in the 2014 General Election including 31,938 from the LD 42nd where this year's critical races were held.  Arguably, many of the top 30 'not voting'  precincts shown above would have voted for Democrats. R Code here.

Monday, December 1, 2014

A really intriguing work on vote fraud: "Code Red"

CODE RED: Computerized Election Theft and The New American Century by Simon, Jonathan on Kindle for Android! http://www.amazon.com/kindleforandroid/

Saturday, November 22, 2014

More CitizenFour: "the fearlessness and the f**k you"

"There are a number of loopholes for putting people onto the watchlists even if reasonable suspicion cannot be met.
One is clearly defined: The immediate family of suspected terrorists—their spouses, children, parents, or siblings—may be watchlisted without any suspicion that they themselves are engaged in terrorist activity. But another loophole is quite broad—”associates” who have a defined relationship with a suspected terrorist, but whose involvement in terrorist activity is not known. A third loophole is broader still—individuals with “a possible nexus” to terrorism, but for whom there is not enough “derogatory information” to meet the reasonable suspicion standard."
from The Intercept Scahill and Devereaux, "THE SECRET GOVERNMENT RULEBOOK FOR LABELING YOU A TERRORIST

Friday, November 21, 2014

Election Totals: Top Ten WA Counties

Certification will be November 24th for most counties. Data from here. More analysis later.


County Registered
Voters
Total Ballots
Counted to Date
Voter
Turnout %
Estimated Ballots
on Hand to
be Processed
Total 3,921,679 2,119,758 54.05% 2321
Top10 Totals 3,220,069 1,701,993 52.86%
King 1,181,076 629,931 53.34% 606
Pierce 441,987 220,768 49.95%
Snohomish 416,389 213,616 51.30% 17
Spokane 281,536 158,833 56.42% 25
Clark 249,277 126,200 50.63%
Thurston 162,655 85,277 52.43% 50
Kitsap 154,462 86,472 55.98%
Whatcom 127,280 76,063 59.76% 30
Yakima 106,415 50,551 47.50%
Benton 98,992 54,282 54.83% 475

CitizenFour at the Limelight: "The Age of Surveillance" , "No Place to Hide" , "Spies for Hire"

"All, too, will bear in mind this sacred principle, that though the will of the majority is in all cases to prevail, that will to be rightful must be reasonable; that the minority possess their equal rights, which equal law must protect, and to violate would be oppression. Let us, then, fellow-citizens, unite with one heart and one mind. Let us restore to social intercourse that harmony and affection without which liberty and even life itself are but dreary things. And let us reflect that, having banished from our land that religious intolerance under which mankind so long bled and suffered, we have yet gained little if we countenance a political intolerance as despotic, as wicked, and capable of as bitter and bloody persecutions. During the throes and convulsions of the ancient world, during the agonizing spasms of infuriated man, seeking through blood and slaughter his long-lost liberty, it was not wonderful that the agitation of the billows should reach even this distant and peaceful shore; that this should be more felt and feared by some and less by others, and should divide opinions as to measures of safety. But every difference of opinion is not a difference of principle. We have called by different names brethren of the same principle. We are all Republicans, we are all Federalists. If there be any among us who would wish to dissolve this Union or to change its republican form, let them stand undisturbed as monuments of the safety with which error of opinion may be tolerated where reason is left free to combat it. " Thomas Jefferson, 1st Inaugural Address (March 1801)

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

CitizenFour

"Ultimately what concerned me...was the deception of government officials... We do have to know the bare and broad outlines of the powers that our government is claiming broadly and how they affect us... Because if we don't, we are no longer citizens. We no longer have leaders. We're subjects and we have rulers. Democracy is about participation. And if we are denied the information that we need in order to vote about the policies we want...and the boundaries of our rights... We're no longer really free. We are beginning a descent into a less free, less liberal, more authoritarian society. And when that descent begins, it is very difficult to reverse."
The Virtual Interview: Edward Snowden - The New Yorker Festival
Update: CitizenFour will open at the Pickford Film Center in Bellingham, WA November 21st:
http://www.pickfordfilmcenter.org/programs/limelight/citizenfour/ -Thanks RMF

On Veteran's Day I went to see CitizenFour at the SIFF Cinema Uptown in the Queen Anne District. It was clearly worth the $12 and the drive to Seattle. Every American should see this film.  Anyone even thinking about dedicating their lives to service for their country should see this film. And, of course, every activist should see this film.  Laura Poitras  is probably the best filmmaker in America today.  This film may be the most revolutionary film to appear across America in recent years. CitizenFour will open at the Pickford Film Center in Bellingham, WA November 21st:

Sunday, November 9, 2014

11.07. Matchbacks and Challenges from 2012, 2013 and 2014 General Elections: "Curing" your invalid signature ballot

Below I have included 2012,2013, and 2014 (to date) General Election Challenge number summaries. To date:

  • 2012 711
  • 2013 634
  • 2014 1118
Some instructive text from Election Desk Administrator Jesse Smiley is included below the yearly Challenge summaries. If you are one of this year's 811 voters who have their ballot challenged on the basis of signature ("No Signature","No Signature Match","Wrong Voter's Signature"), then you should receive a letter giving you the chance to "cure" your ballot sometime before the  11/24/2014 Canvas Board certification. I am working on a web database where you can check if you are one of these.

Friday, November 7, 2014

.Fwd: We're still fighting (Please Donate to WA Dems in these tight races...)

Dear Reader: 

I usually don't personally sanction donation requests. But this one is important. Signature checks can be subjective and can deny challenged voters their franchise. In these tight races, the Democrats are working to address these issues.  After Whatcom County (and other) dismal results, I know you (like me)  are a tired, depressed (or angry) Democrat or Democrat supporter. But please consider Karen Deal's pitch for funding below the break. Here's a chance to follow through on post election efforts to keep the WA state house Democratic and support the integrity of the vote!!

Thanks, 

 RMF

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Matchbacks 11.06.14: Votes left on the table...

Editor's Note 4:49 PM 11/7/2014: This data included both Active and Inactive Voters for the 42nd.
Click on these charts to enlarge. See table below the break. Checked all this data as best I could. Final tallies (not much left) will change it little.
Above: LD 42nd: Participation Rates to date for 119 precints. See table below the break.