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Sunday, December 14, 2014

"Why the Democrats Lost: Part II" : Analysis of 2012,2013,2014 MatchBacks by Voting Age

The data from this analysis follows from Part I. The 2012 vote for Obama and Cantwell contained a much higher percentage of youth voters than the 2014 vote for the 42nd legislative seats.  Whether these youth votes were suppressed, discouraged, or uninterested in voting for  the Democrat candidates in 2014 is unknown. I will hazard this question:  Satpal Sidhu did the best of the Democrat  legislative candidates. He had the narrowest margin of loss.  Was it because he was perceived as more pro business or more moderate? Or was it because he was a person color who attracted more young Hispanic and Native American votes? Or both?  R Code is here.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

"Why the Democrats Lost: Part I" : Analysis of 2012,2013,2014 MatchBacks by Voting Year

The easiest conclusion is that 2012 Cantwell and Obama voters did not turn out for the Democrats in 2014.  It might be possible to conclude that the Republicans energized their base to vote more for their legislative candidates in 2014 than they did for their county candidates in 2013. Click on the charts below to enlarge. R Code is here.

Friday, December 5, 2014

A Final MatchBack analysis for General Election 2014

16,845 42nd LD Precinct Votes "left on the table" from those precincts with over 300 'not voting'. 32K voters registered in the 42nd LD did not participate.  Click on chart too enlarge.
Statistics below paint a dismal picture of participation in the 2014 General Election. 48,205 registered Whatcom County voters did not participate in the 2014 General Election including 31,938 from the LD 42nd where this year's critical races were held.  Arguably, many of the top 30 'not voting'  precincts shown above would have voted for Democrats. R Code here.

Monday, December 1, 2014

A really intriguing work on vote fraud: "Code Red"

CODE RED: Computerized Election Theft and The New American Century by Simon, Jonathan on Kindle for Android! http://www.amazon.com/kindleforandroid/

Saturday, November 22, 2014

More CitizenFour: "the fearlessness and the f**k you"

"There are a number of loopholes for putting people onto the watchlists even if reasonable suspicion cannot be met.
One is clearly defined: The immediate family of suspected terrorists—their spouses, children, parents, or siblings—may be watchlisted without any suspicion that they themselves are engaged in terrorist activity. But another loophole is quite broad—”associates” who have a defined relationship with a suspected terrorist, but whose involvement in terrorist activity is not known. A third loophole is broader still—individuals with “a possible nexus” to terrorism, but for whom there is not enough “derogatory information” to meet the reasonable suspicion standard."
from The Intercept Scahill and Devereaux, "THE SECRET GOVERNMENT RULEBOOK FOR LABELING YOU A TERRORIST

Friday, November 21, 2014

Election Totals: Top Ten WA Counties

Certification will be November 24th for most counties. Data from here. More analysis later.


County Registered
Voters
Total Ballots
Counted to Date
Voter
Turnout %
Estimated Ballots
on Hand to
be Processed
Total 3,921,679 2,119,758 54.05% 2321
Top10 Totals 3,220,069 1,701,993 52.86%
King 1,181,076 629,931 53.34% 606
Pierce 441,987 220,768 49.95%
Snohomish 416,389 213,616 51.30% 17
Spokane 281,536 158,833 56.42% 25
Clark 249,277 126,200 50.63%
Thurston 162,655 85,277 52.43% 50
Kitsap 154,462 86,472 55.98%
Whatcom 127,280 76,063 59.76% 30
Yakima 106,415 50,551 47.50%
Benton 98,992 54,282 54.83% 475

CitizenFour at the Limelight: "The Age of Surveillance" , "No Place to Hide" , "Spies for Hire"

"All, too, will bear in mind this sacred principle, that though the will of the majority is in all cases to prevail, that will to be rightful must be reasonable; that the minority possess their equal rights, which equal law must protect, and to violate would be oppression. Let us, then, fellow-citizens, unite with one heart and one mind. Let us restore to social intercourse that harmony and affection without which liberty and even life itself are but dreary things. And let us reflect that, having banished from our land that religious intolerance under which mankind so long bled and suffered, we have yet gained little if we countenance a political intolerance as despotic, as wicked, and capable of as bitter and bloody persecutions. During the throes and convulsions of the ancient world, during the agonizing spasms of infuriated man, seeking through blood and slaughter his long-lost liberty, it was not wonderful that the agitation of the billows should reach even this distant and peaceful shore; that this should be more felt and feared by some and less by others, and should divide opinions as to measures of safety. But every difference of opinion is not a difference of principle. We have called by different names brethren of the same principle. We are all Republicans, we are all Federalists. If there be any among us who would wish to dissolve this Union or to change its republican form, let them stand undisturbed as monuments of the safety with which error of opinion may be tolerated where reason is left free to combat it. " Thomas Jefferson, 1st Inaugural Address (March 1801)

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

CitizenFour

"Ultimately what concerned me...was the deception of government officials... We do have to know the bare and broad outlines of the powers that our government is claiming broadly and how they affect us... Because if we don't, we are no longer citizens. We no longer have leaders. We're subjects and we have rulers. Democracy is about participation. And if we are denied the information that we need in order to vote about the policies we want...and the boundaries of our rights... We're no longer really free. We are beginning a descent into a less free, less liberal, more authoritarian society. And when that descent begins, it is very difficult to reverse."
The Virtual Interview: Edward Snowden - The New Yorker Festival
Update: CitizenFour will open at the Pickford Film Center in Bellingham, WA November 21st:
http://www.pickfordfilmcenter.org/programs/limelight/citizenfour/ -Thanks RMF

On Veteran's Day I went to see CitizenFour at the SIFF Cinema Uptown in the Queen Anne District. It was clearly worth the $12 and the drive to Seattle. Every American should see this film.  Anyone even thinking about dedicating their lives to service for their country should see this film. And, of course, every activist should see this film.  Laura Poitras  is probably the best filmmaker in America today.  This film may be the most revolutionary film to appear across America in recent years. CitizenFour will open at the Pickford Film Center in Bellingham, WA November 21st:

Sunday, November 9, 2014

11.07. Matchbacks and Challenges from 2012, 2013 and 2014 General Elections: "Curing" your invalid signature ballot

Below I have included 2012,2013, and 2014 (to date) General Election Challenge number summaries. To date:

  • 2012 711
  • 2013 634
  • 2014 1118
Some instructive text from Election Desk Administrator Jesse Smiley is included below the yearly Challenge summaries. If you are one of this year's 811 voters who have their ballot challenged on the basis of signature ("No Signature","No Signature Match","Wrong Voter's Signature"), then you should receive a letter giving you the chance to "cure" your ballot sometime before the  11/24/2014 Canvas Board certification. I am working on a web database where you can check if you are one of these.

Friday, November 7, 2014

.Fwd: We're still fighting (Please Donate to WA Dems in these tight races...)

Dear Reader: 

I usually don't personally sanction donation requests. But this one is important. Signature checks can be subjective and can deny challenged voters their franchise. In these tight races, the Democrats are working to address these issues.  After Whatcom County (and other) dismal results, I know you (like me)  are a tired, depressed (or angry) Democrat or Democrat supporter. But please consider Karen Deal's pitch for funding below the break. Here's a chance to follow through on post election efforts to keep the WA state house Democratic and support the integrity of the vote!!

Thanks, 

 RMF

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Matchbacks 11.06.14: Votes left on the table...

Editor's Note 4:49 PM 11/7/2014: This data included both Active and Inactive Voters for the 42nd.
Click on these charts to enlarge. See table below the break. Checked all this data as best I could. Final tallies (not much left) will change it little.
Above: LD 42nd: Participation Rates to date for 119 precints. See table below the break.


Wednesday, November 5, 2014

MatchBacks for 11.05.2014

Tonight's returns have the Democrats still 5K - 8K behind despite an increase to 65,446 ballots counted. Matchbacks have 74,881 ballots that have been accepted as good ready to count in the courthouse. Signature Challenges continue to grow (799 total):
  • 156 No Signature
  • 581 No Signature Match
  • 62 Wrong Voter's Signature
69% (52025) of the accepted ballots hail from the 42nd
25354 from the 100 Series of the 42 LD
13413 from the 200 Series of the 42 LD
13258 from the 300 - 801 Series of the 42 LD

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Election Night Matchbacks 11/04/2014

The Dems are down in the 42nd by about 7K votes in each of three races (Senate, representative(2)). 66,056 Ballots are returned Good. It's not clear how many ballots are out. What is clear is that this turnout will be strong and has a very high signature challenge rate:

count(MBacc_status,"AVReturnStatus")
  AVReturnStatus  freq
1     Challenged   640
2           Good 66056
3  Undeliverable  2090

count(MBacc_status,"AVReturnChallenge")
         AVReturnChallenge  freq
1                          66056
2               Electronic     3
3              ID Required    10
4                No Ballot     5
5             No Signature   116
6       No Signature Match   449
7        Power of Attorney     1
8   Second Ballot Received     4
9            Undeliverable  2090
10 Wrong Voter's Signature    51
11            Z - Deceased     1

LAST CALL!!! What Happens If YOU DON'T VOTE!!

Calling all Democrats and Friend of Democrat Voters:
Whatcom County Drop Boxes and Election Office in Whatcom County are open to 8:00  PM tonight!

Okay, it 6:00 PM.  Tuesday, November 4, 2014 on the troubled Planet Earth, an M class planet of seven billion people spiraling out of control somewhere in the Milky Way Galaxy.

And now you have to ask yourself, "What kind of voter am I?"

  • Are you the kind of voter that just doesn't care about whether you vote or not but will cry hot dimes when the Republicans cut your support programs?
  • Are you the kind of voter that waited to the last minute and are now just too tired to spend 15 minutes on that ballot and drive downtown?
  • Are you the worn out parent who just hasn't had the time?
Well. Here's the deal. In a parallel future running beside the one where you drag your tired *ss off your dinner seat, finish up YOUR ENTIRE BALLOT and VOTE, here's what happens:

Why I'm voting for Satpal Sidhu

"...50,000 people fall into poverty every year in our state. This is what income inequality looks like. The top 10 percent are getting the economic recovery. 90% are falling behind...People working 60 or 70 hours a week can not make it. It's not the policy, it's income inequality."  Satpal Sidhu  from 2014 Human Services Debate from COB Youtube 
How often do you get the chance to vote for a Fullbright Scholar in Whatcom County? How often do you get the chance to vote for a Fullbright Scholar in any event? But Satpal Sidhu is far more than this. He is an engineer, businessman, educator, and long time Whatcom County resident. What I like most about him is the way he combines discussions of social equality with business growth and the promotion of education.  It's a troika of issues that are less and less promoted together as important policy objectives as national politics have become more polarized.

Monday, November 3, 2014

MatchBacks to 11/03/2014


About 10,000 ballots were logged as returned this weekend today.  47,415  out of 127, 211 registered voters have successfully had their ballots marked as good to date.  If you are one of the 2,090 that haven't received your ballot because you moved and didn't update your address at www.myvote.wa.gov,  you can still walk in to Whatcom County Courthouse (Election Desk) and find a way to vote.  (Yes, I checked on this today!) Please talk to helpful election desk. Tomorrow is your last day to do this.

Please  Keep Voting....

count(MBacc_status,"AVReturnStatus")
  AVReturnStatus  freq
1     Challenged   379
2           Good 47415
3  Undeliverable  2090
count(MBacc_status,"AVReturnChallenge")
         AVReturnChallenge  freq
1                          47415
2               Electronic     3
3              ID Required     1
4                No Ballot     4
5             No Signature    89
6       No Signature Match   241
7        Power of Attorney     1
8   Second Ballot Received     4
9            Undeliverable  2090
10 Wrong Voter's Signature    35
11            Z - Deceased     1

Why I'm supporting Bob Burr for Public Utilities District

Q: "Why has the PUD already awarded a thirty year contract to Gateway Terminal for almost two billion gallons [per year] for water." [LVW moderator]
A: "Why did they ? Beats the heck out of me! This contract was inherited or bought from Pacific International Terminals. It was set to expire in 2015. It was renewable on a year to year basis and there was no need whatsoever to extend that for thirty years. We have potential water shortage problems in this county,   We certainly have problems with water rights and to commit two billion gallons a year for thirty years was nonsensical and nearly evil." PUD #1 Candidate Bob Burr from COB Youtube video starting here
Baring some miracle of new energy, the next twenty years of Whatcom County's economic history will bring increasing involvement with the carbon club. As if two oil refineries, expanded natural gas and oil pipelines, and the nations's planned largest coal terminal were not enough, we can expect our nearby location to Vancouver, B.C. (where they are now not just shipping coal but Albertan oil) will intertwine our two urban economies with the energy economy.   This counts as a bittersweet economic development even if you are not an environmentalist or allergic asthmatic. Extra tax monies from the mountains of profit generated by the carbon club doesn't necessarily go to the population nearby the resource economies locale. Good examples of this are West Virginia and most of the Middle East. But there are other "carbon club" communities singularly impoverished here on the West coast of America. The California cities of Richmond and Carson don't ever make those "top ten places to retire" lists.

Sunday, November 2, 2014

How (and why) I filled out my ballot

Tools I used  for marking my 2014 WA state mail in  ballot: Hard Surface (Clipboard), Ball Point Pen, Small Metal Ruler and the  Internet. Note that there are no soft drinks, food, or blood anywhere near my ballot. Note that I tore off the stub (upper left) and tested my ball point on it before using my small metal ruler to draw straight lines on my ballot placed on the hard clipboard surface.

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Seth Fleetwood vs. Doug Ericksen Flyers Compared (Or why I am voting for Seth Fleetwood)

Below are montages (click to enlarge)  of the collected 30 placard flyers we have received from those people who support Seth Fleetwood and those people who do not support Seth Fleetwood (e.g. probably support Doug Ericksen) for state Senator in WA 42 LD. This district of 85K voters will have well over a  $1M spent on just these two men's campaigns by the time this is over. You will notice that the thirteen pro Seth Fleetwood flyers I receive are almost all positive in tone. They generally involve not only interest groups I know, but community members I know as well. The woman with the quote "My kids safety is my number one priority" is the owner (Arlene Mantha) of 250 Flora, arguably one of the better lunch experiences in Bellingham, WA.  I know for certain that she cares about children, because she feeds my son Rory every time we visit the Whatcom Children's Museum.   "All these years of being involved with the PTA at my children's school", she said almost apologetically to me one lunch. "It leads you to become involved on a political level".   Of course it does. Public schools need funding and parents need political champions to fund their schools. As a voter, I can readily believe a Democrat like Seth Fleetwood will champion education and social services.


Now let us look at the truly scary and (as far as I am concerned)  mostly defamatory seventeen pieces of flack that have been delivered to my mail box from the people who ostensibly support Senator Doug Ericksen. I say ostensibly because there is little in any of these advertisements that actually tells me what Doug Ericksen has done in all his years in the Senate. There are a lot of nasty pictures of Seth: Seth as the flake, Seth as hungover, Seth as the tax increaser, Seth as the carpetbagger, Seth as Pinocchio for heaven's sake.... Almost every placard is dagger of character assassination with scant proof for the assertions; assertions which I can recognize as created from dubious logical conclusions to begin with. For example, all politicians are forced to raise taxes in an inflationary driven economy, otherwise good people would simply stop training to become cops, firemen and teachers!  No, Seth Fleetwood (as a state Senator) will not be able to control, in any meaningful way, the price of heating oil or gasoline. Energy is a fungible worldwide economy whose price is controlled but it is really improbable that anybody who helps control the price of energy will ever run for state senator!  Your state senator is your "go to" person to help your community fund its development, downtown, waterfront, industry,agriculture, tourism, retail, schools, emergency services,etc. I simply have no idea from these advertisements how Senator Ericksen has ever done this for me.  All I know from these advertisements is that the people who support Senator Ericksen detest Seth Fleetwood.


It might well be that Senator Ericksen has been far more effective and more bipartisan than he has been portrayed by Democrats and their interest groups. But how am I supposed to know this? I'm voting for Seth Fleetwood not just because I distrust most Republicans these days, but because people I know believe in him.  Please remember to vote!

Accumulated MatchBack Data from 9/20 through 10/31


Picked up my first matchbacks on Thursday. First round is cumulative.  To date we have

count(MBacc_status,"AVReturnStatus")
  AVReturnStatus  freq
1     Challenged   270
2           Good 36897
3  Undeliverable  2027

 count(MBacc_status,"AVReturnChallenge")
        AVReturnChallenge  freq
1                         36897
2               No Ballot     3
3            No Signature    71
4      No Signature Match   160
5       Power of Attorney     1
6  Second Ballot Received     4
7           Undeliverable  2027
8 Wrong Voter's Signature    30
9            Z - Deceased     1

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Ballotcounted dispositions (null, 0, 1) mapped per precinct for GE 2012 and GE2013 elections.

Here are three 'BallotCounted_' dispositions (null, 0, 1) mapped each per precinct for the last two general elections in WA LD42nd and the difference for each disposition between the two. SQL code here.  

BallotCounted_ = '' 
This is null; In general the voter was not or is not registered for the election counted. In an active voter list, this also refers to successfully challenged votes. Newly active voters for 2014 will also be null until they vote.
BallotCounted =  '0' 
Mail Ballot Issued but not returned. Vote not successfully cast.
BallotCounted = '1'
Mail Ballot Issued and Returne. Vote successfully cast. 

For some reason, one of the smaller precincts is missing. Data is from 10/29/2014 voterdb for Whatcom County.To look at this data you may want to paste it into a spreadsheet or in notepad use one of the Courier fonts to maintain appropriate spacing.

Monday, October 27, 2014

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Preceding our votes on I594, we have a spree-killing at a WA School

PDC map of i594 financing showing $3.2M in contributions from New York.
"And... The thing is, is I don't always just go out an shoot something. It's not my favorite part about hunting. My favorite part about it is about just being in the woods. Just me my dad an my brother. An even if I'm sitting in the passenger seat sleeping it doesn't matter. I like to be in the woods an that's it...." from the Facebook page of Jaylen Fryburg (now removed)
I have a hard time buying all the mass shooting stories we are fed in the news: The last group of spree killing stories have all been about troubled  young men and when you read the press reports later everyone from novice psychologists to journalists have a field day trying to perform amateur criminal psychoanalysis and discover what happened. Internet and Facebook commentary spread like wildfire.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

The "Obama Diff": Can 2014 turnout match 2012 turnout?


Active Voters 10/20/2014 : Light Red extensions are the per precinct difference between turnout of 2012 GE vs. 2013 GE.
The chart above gives us the "Obama Diff" or the difference between those voters active now (10/20/2014) who voted in the 2012 GE but not the 2013 GE in the 42nd LD. These 19K voters are what I am calling the Whatcom County "swing vote" in the 42nd LD . The 42nd LD races may well come down to these 19K voters and it may be as simple as this:

  • If you support Democrats, you want these 19K to vote
  • If you support Republicans, you want to suppress these 19K

It's almost certain that most of the difference between the red and blue in the chart above will vote Democrat.  However, those 42nd LD voters elected Cantwell and Obama in 2012 , but not McClendon and Krough. So how will they turn out for Monjure, Sidhu, Fleetwood in 2014?

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

You should have your mail-in ballot : Precincts and their counts: 09/05/2014 - 10/20/2014

If you updated your address, if you registered to vote, then you should have your mail-in ballot by now!.  Call or visit the Whatcom County Election office if you should but do not. Active voters per precinct in the 119 42nd LD precincts between  09/05/2014 - 10/20/2014:

Fwd: Your guide to the Charter Review Commission

Democrat guide to Charter Review Candidates is below the break. -RMF
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Whatcom Democrats <demchair@whatcomdemocrats.com>
Date: Tue, Oct 21, 2014 at 2:43 PM
Subject: Your guide to the Charter Review Commission
To: Ryan <rferrisx@gmail.com>